Thursday night, the 1-seed Duke Blue Devils will face the 4-seed Arizona Wildcats in the Sweet 16. With only four teams left in the NCAA Tournament’s East Region, the showdown is one of the most-anticipated games of the upcoming weekend.
Key #1: How Will the Duke Blue Devils Handle Arizona’s Pressure Defense?
The Arizona Wildcats have a strong mix of perimeter defenders, namely Carter Bryant, KJ Lewis, and Jaden Bradley. Head coach Tommy Lloyd will likely deploy Bryant, the 6-foot-7 freshman with incredible athleticism, on freshman sensation Cooper Flagg. Arizona’s pressure will challenge Duke’s ball handlers, Sion James and Tyrese Proctor, in a way that few ACC teams will have been able to do throughout the regular season. While Duke typically has a size advantage in the backcourt due to the 6-foot-6 frames of James and Proctor, Arizona has the size to match.
While Duke has been blowing out teams as of late, even pulling away from a talented Baylor team in the Round of 32, this pressure could be the key to Arizona getting off to a good start, which will be absolutely imperative. The Wildcats cannot afford to let their opponents get a jump on them – although they overcame a 17-4 deficit against Oregon, such a disastrous opening few minutes would likely prove fatal against a team as good as Duke.
Key #2: Can Duke Limit the Arizona Wildcats’ Offensive Rebounding?
Arizona’s Tobe Awaka is one of the best offensive rebounders in the country. He will be battling with Duke’s freshmen frontcourt tandem of Khaman Maluach and Patrick Ngongba. Awaka was excellent against Oregon, securing 14 rebounds on the evening, 5 of which were offensive, and scoring 12 points. Against Duke’s stellar defense, second-chance points will be a key area for Arizona, and there’s nobody better for the job than Awaka.
Duke is still missing one of their key interior players in Syracuse transfer Maliq Brown, who has missed much of the recent action with a dislocated shoulder suffered in the ACC Tournament. Although Scheyer is said that he is hoping to return at some point, there is no timetable for him doing so. Brown is one of the leaders on the team and key parts of their defense.
Key #3: Three-Point Shooting
Arizona is not a great shooting team, particularly when compared to Duke. Although Caleb Love is a big-time shot-maker, he is only shooting 33.6 percent on the year. Percentage-wise, the team’s two best shooters are Bryant, who is shooting 37.4% on the year, and Anthony Dell’Orso, who shoots it at over 41%. Importantly, Bryant has been at 50% on over 3 attempts per game in his last 5 contests, while the Aussie Dell’Orso has also been performing above-average. Overall, the team only shoots 33.4% overall, one of the worst marks of any remaining team.
Conversely, Duke is one of the best three-point shooting teams left in the tournament. With a team percentage of 38.1%, only Houston and Purdue have a better overall mark. Proctor in particular has been on fire; after a brutal 0-10 stretch in the opening stages of the ACC Tournament, he has made 19-30 of his deep balls in the last three games for a blistering 63.3%.
Jon Scheyer’s team have averaged 13 made threes per game through two games and are shooting over 44% as a team from long range. A variety of players have stepped up to make multiple threes, including Purdue transfer Mason Gillis, sophomore Caleb Foster, and the other star freshman, Kon Knueppel. While Knueppel has only scored 18 total points through the opening rounds, he has been impactful on both ends of the floor despite only taking 10 shots.
Key #4: Caleb Love Once Again Faces the Duke Blue Devils in March
Whatever the numbers say about Caleb Love, the fact remains that March Madness has already seen some incredible moments from him. In his last game against Oregon, Love had 29 points and absolutely torched Oregon in the final minutes of the game. Significantly, Love also has the experience of performing amazingly well against Duke in the tournament.
In 2022, Love had 28 points and a dagger three-pointer over Duke’s Mark Williams to send North Carolina to the championship and knock out the rival Blue Devils. When asked about the matchup against the familiar foe, Love had a blunt response.
“We’ll be ready for them.”
Although this is a completely different Duke team when compared to the one Love faced three years ago, the familiarity with the pressure that comes with facing everything that is Duke is something Love has already handled. His experience can help settle his team down and give them a chance to pull off the upset.
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