March is one of the greatest times of the sports year for fans, alumni, and bettors, as the March Madness tournament tips off looking to crown a new champion. Picking the ‘Cinderella story’ in a bracket challenge has given fans some of their most exhilarating moments. During this time of profound fandom, the team basketball spectators will become most attached to is who they select as their champion. With sports gambling legal across more states than before, fans will have the opportunity to bet on who they believe will win the tournament. Two historical trends will break down who from the field of 68 teams will actually have a chance to win the tournament.
Historical Trend 1: KenPom Rankings
Developed by Ken Pomeroy, the KenPom rankings are known as one of the best data-driven analyses in college basketball. Since 2002, 19 of the 21 national champions ranked in the top 25 in offensive and defensive efficiency in the pre-tournament KenPom rankings. The two outliers were the 2014 UConn Huskies and the 2021 Baylor Bears. Eight teams fit that criteria:
- UConn Huskies
- Houston Cougars
- Purdue Boilermakers
- Auburn Tigers
- Arizona Wildcats
- North Carolina Tar Heels
- Creighton Blue Jays
- Marquette Golden Eagles
Historical Trend 2: Conference Tournament Semifinal
The second historical trend to follow this March is that every National Champion since 1985 has reached the semifinal of their conference tournament. With the abundance of upsets we saw in conference tournament play this year, this trend eliminates notable teams that people will want to take to win their brackets this season like the Kentucky Wildcats and Tennessee Volunteers. When looking at both historical trends, this unfortunately eliminates the Creighton Blue Jays from contention, who lost to the Providence Friars in the quarterfinal of the Big East Conference tournament.
The 2024 Men’s College Basketball National Champion Will Be One of These Teams:
The teams that fit both the KenPom trend and Conference tournament trend include:
- UConn Huskies
- Houston Cougars
- Purdue Boilermakers
- Auburn Tigers
- Arizona Wildcats
- North Carolina Tar Heels
- Marquette Golden Eagles
All of the teams in this list have been impressive all year earning all of them a 1 or 2 seed in their region in the March Madness tournament, except Auburn who just won the SEC tournament.
Sportsbooks also believe the champion will be one of these teams as odds to win the National Championship are:
- UConn Huskies +370
- Houston Cougars +550
- Purdue Boilermakers +700
- Arizona Wildcats +1200
- North Carolina +1700
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.
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