Last night, the Miami Heat defeated the Sacramento Kings 115-106 at home, ending their seven-game losing streak, the longest losing streak the team has had since 2008.
It was a strong showing for the Heat especially on offense. Jimmy Butler was incredible, recording 31 points, seven rebounds, and six assists while shooting a ludicrous 71.4% from the field. He was terrific in terms of getting the free throw line, shooting 12 free throws, and making nine shots at the charity stripe.
Terry Rozier, who the team traded for last week, had a rough night as a scorer, scoring just three points and shooting just 1-for-8 from the field. However, he still was very impactful on both ends of the floor, racking up five rebounds, 10 assists, just one turnover, two steals, and a block.
The Heat’s bench had a good performance vs. the Kings as three of their bench players finished the game with a plus-minus of +10 or above. Josh Richardson fell short of this plus-minus with a mark of +5, but he was arguably the team’s second-best player behind Butler. He had an extremely productive night, recording 24 points, five rebounds, three assists, and zero turnovers while shooting 60% from the field and 60% from three-point range.
What has been the problem for the Miami Heat?
After a strong start to the season, sporting a record of 24-16 through the first 40 games, the Heat fell into a slump starting on January 17 when they lost to the Toronto Raptors 121-97 on the road. This 24-point loss started their seven-game losing streak
A big reason why the Heat struggled so much during this losing streak is because of their offense, which hasn’t been great this season and reached a low point last month. William Guillory of the Athletic noted that in the month of January, the Heat ranked 28th in the NBA in offensive rating. This means they ranked 28th in how many points they were scoring per 100 possessions.
A big reason why their offense struggled so much is because they couldn’t put the ball in the basket. In January, the Heat shot just 44.1% from the field and 35.6% from three-point range. They had similar shooting splits in October when they scored just 104.5 points per game and went 1-3 to start the season.
This wasn’t their only issue. They also struggled to grab offensive rebounds and they didn’t get to the free-throw line very often. With these issues, it’s no surprise that the Heat were one of the worst offensive teams in the league for the month of January.
What can we expect from the Miami Heat moving forward?
The Miami Heat are an interesting team. If you just look at the advanced numbers that try to capture their overall performance, you’d think they are a below-average team. They are in the bottom half of the league in terms of offensive efficiency and they are just slightly above average in terms of defensive efficiency. They also rank just 20th in SRS, a metric that adjusts every team’s average scoring margin for their strength of schedule in an attempt to measure how good teams are performing.
Of course, there are obvious reasons why the Heat haven’t performed at a high level this season. They shoot poorly from inside the arc, they turn the ball over a bit too much, and they are one of the worst teams in the league at grabbing offensive rebounds. On defense, opponents shoot very well from every area of the floor, which destroys their defensive efficiency.
Despite all of these issues, there are reasons to believe that the Heat can turn things around. For starters, they are a really good shooting team, ranking top ten in three-point percentage and free-throw percentage. This indicates that the Heat can shoot the ball at a high level. If they have a strong shooting performance, which is a solid bet based on their shooting percentages, they can produce good results on offense.
They also have phenomenal defensive numbers across the board. While teams shoot well against them, the Heat’s defense ranks top ten in key metrics like turnover rate, defensive rebound rate, and free throw rate. These stats are part of what statistician Dean Oliver coined the “four factors,” four metrics that correlate the most to winning basketball games.
Overall, the results have not been great for the Heat this season. After making the NBA Finals last season, they currently rank seventh in the Eastern Conference with a record of 25-23. This team has a tendency to be sluggish in the regular season and this season has been no different for them. However, this team does a lot of things at a high level, and they have a few strengths that can allow them to play at a high level in a playoff setting.
It’s understandable if you want to doubt the Miami Heat. Be careful if you do, though, because the Heat always flip a switch in the postseason, and they just might do that again this year.
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Excellent article!