The 2023 college season has been fascinating. Teams like Houston and Purdue have unsurprisingly been amazing while other teams like BYU, South Carolina, and Indiana State have exceeded expectations and become top-25 teams.
Another team that has exceeded expectations is the Auburn Tigers. They’ve had their ups and downs this season, but they currently have a record of 20-5 and rank 2nd in the SEC behind the Tennessee Volunteers.
If you judged Auburn strictly based on their AP ranking or metrics that attempt to measure the impressiveness of their record, like ESPN’s strength of record, you might think that it’s ridiculous to suggest they are a dark horse to contend for the national championship. However, the AP rankings don’t reflect how well Auburn has been playing on both ends of the floor this year.
While the Tigers have a bad loss vs. Appalachian State and some disappointing losses vs. Florida and Mississippi State, their advanced stats show they have been performing at an extremely high level on offense and defense. They also indicate that this team has a chance to make a deep run in the tournament and potentially contend for a national championship.
Let’s take a look at what makes the Auburn Tigers so good and whether or not they can actually win it all this season.
The Auburn Tigers have a good but unique offense
Right now, Auburn ranks 9th in Kenpom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric, with a mark of 119.5. Their offense is great, but the way they generate efficient offense is extremely interesting.
Most of the top teams in the nation in offensive efficiency are great at shooting from outside the arc, including Purdue, Alabama, Baylor, and Kentucky. This isn’t the case for all great offensive units, but shooting well from three-point range will help your offense be more efficient.
Auburn is one team that has been extremely efficient on offense despite not shooting well from distance. This season, they are shooting just 31.8% from three, which ranks 270th in the entire country.
While they don’t shoot very well from behind the arc, they do everything else at a fairly high level. They’re shooting 55% on two-pointers and they rank top fifty in turnover rate, offensive rebound rate, and free throw rate. This is why their offense has been so good despite being a bit weak in terms of perimeter shooting.
It’s also important to highlight how well their two best players Johni Broome and Jaylin Williams are playing. Broome has been incredible this season, averaging around 16 points, eight rebounds, and two assists per game while shooting 55.4% from the field and 38.5% from three. His per-game numbers may not pop off the screen, but keep in mind that he is playing just 24 minutes per game. His production on a per-minute basis is insane.
Williams has also been very productive, averaging around 13 points, five rebounds, and two assists per game while shooting 59% from the field, 67.2% on two-pointers, and 42.6% from three. Like Broome, he doesn’t play a ton of minutes per game but his productivity per minute is very good.
These two players are unique as they have good size, shoot well at the rim, are solid three-point shooters, and provide a little bit of playmaking. They are a huge reason why the team has been so good offensively.
When you watch Auburn play, it’s clear why they’re able to succeed on offense with limited three-point shooting. For starters, a lot of their actions have good floor spacing. They often have four players outside the three-point line and one player in the paint. This allows them to run their offense which utilizes a lot of off-ball screens and movement from their players.
Auburn does a good job of using cuts to attack opposing defenses. Over the last couple of games, they’ve had some plays where they’ve used cuts to reach the open space on the floor and generate open layups.
Unlike a lot of teams in the modern game, the Tigers don’t run much pick and roll. However, they do run a lot of screens off the ball, which allows their players to get open for open three-pointers.
Their offense relies a lot on ball movement. This is why they rank 10th in assist rate with a mark of 62.5%. Just because you generate a lot of assists doesn’t mean you’re guaranteed to have an efficient offense, but Auburn’s passing does show up on film.
While we’re talking about passing, it would be a disservice to not mention Tre Donaldson and Aden Holloway, two of Auburn’s point guards who rank first and second on the team in total assists. They are a big reason why Auburn has been so productive in terms of their playmaking.
Overall, Auburn has a weirdly effective offense. They don’t launch long-distance bombs at a high rate and they aren’t effective at shooting from behind the arc. However, they do a lot of things well that are quite underrated like limiting turnovers and grabbing offensive rebounds. They also have a good offensive system that allows them to get open looks at the rim and from three-point range by utilizing off-ball screens and cuts.
While Auburn has been really good on offense this season, they’ve been even better on defense. In fact, they have one of the top defensive units in college basketball.
Auburn has one of the best defenses in the country
Right now, Auburn ranks 4th in adjusted defensive efficiency according to Kenpom. In this metric, they rank behind defensive juggernauts like Houston and Iowa State.
Weirdly, Auburn isn’t that good in a lot of defensive metrics. They rank outside of the top fifty in forced turnover rate and they rank outside of the top 100 in defensive rebound rate and free throw rate allowed. However, there are two areas in which their defense shines as they rank 1st in two-point percentage allowed and 19th in three-point percentage allowed, which is the biggest reason why their defense is so efficient.
Auburn’s biggest strength on defense is their ability to protect the rim. This season, they have allowed opponents to shoot just 47.1% at the basket, which is absolutely incredible. Their elite rim protection also shows up in their block rate as they erase 15.9% of their opponents’ two-point field goal attempts. The aforementioned Johni Broome has been their most productive shot blocker, sporting a block rate of 10.3%.
Auburn is great at wreaking havoc on defense and turning defense into offense. In the last couple of games, they have made plenty of huge plays in which they have turned steals and blocks into easy layups in transition.
Can Auburn win the national championship?
Historically, teams that rank top twenty in Kenpom’s offensive and defensive efficiency metrics have a good chance of making it far in the NCAA tournament and even winning the national championship. Three teams fit this criteria this season, including Houston, Tennessee, UConn, North Carolina, Arizona, Purdue, and Auburn. Among these teams, the Tigers are the only squad to rank top ten in both metrics.
Based on this information, Auburn appears to be a real contender to win a national championship. If a team is this good on both ends of the floor, it’s hard to say they can’t win it all.
However, Auburn does have some serious flaws that could hold them back in the tournament. For starters, their lack of three-point shooting might hurt them if they face a team that gets hot shooting from distance. Also, their defense is good, but they are extremely aggressive in trying to generate turnovers and this gets them in trouble at times as opponents can get wide-open shots when the Tigers make mistakes.
Still, Auburn is an awesome team. They are better than their ranking and both the numbers and the film make it clear that they are one of the top teams in the nation. Don’t be surprised if they shock the nation and make it far in the tournament this March.